World conflict map: where the risk of new armed conflict is rising
Where the risk of a new armed crisis or coup in the next 90 days is rising — and where wars are already under way.
Data as of · 234 countries and territories monitored · the estimate is recalculated daily · fighting data arrive with a delay of about 2 months
Changes over 7 days (27 Sep–4 Oct)
Historically, about 1 in 110 weeks at this level were followed by a new crisis within 90 days
Historically, about 1 in 11 weeks at this level were followed by a new crisis within 90 days
Historically, about 1 in 6 weeks at this level were followed by a new crisis within 90 days
Historically, about 1 in 4 weeks at this level were followed by a new crisis within 90 days
A crisis here means a new outbreak of armed violence or a coup — a threat to people’s lives or freedom.
| Country | Was | Now | Main signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇹Ethiopia war ongoing |
Elevated | ↑ High | Level of armed violence |
| 🇮🇷Iran | Elevated | ↑ High | Level of armed violence |
| 🇭🇹Haiti | Elevated | ↑ High | Level of armed violence |
| 🇮🇶Iraq | Low | ↑ Elevated | Level of armed violence |
| 🇧🇷Brazil | Low | ↑ Elevated | Diplomatic staff evacuations |
| Country | Was | Now | Main signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇧🇫Burkina Faso war ongoing |
High | ↓ Elevated | Level of armed violence |
| 🇳🇪Niger war ongoing |
Very high | ↓ High | Situation in neighbouring countries |
No new events since 27 Sep
Happening now
- 🇧🇫Burkina Faso
Major armed conflict
since 15 Aug 2021 - 🇨🇴Colombia
Major armed conflict
since 25 May 2026 - 🇨🇩Congo - Kinshasa
Major armed conflict
since 5 Feb 2018 or earlier - 🇪🇹Ethiopia
Major armed conflict
since 8 May 2023 - 🇮🇱Israel
Major armed conflict
since 7 Oct 2023 - 🇱🇧Lebanon
Major armed conflict
since 15 Aug 2026 - 🇲🇱Mali
Major armed conflict
since 17 Jul 2018 - 🇲🇽Mexico
Major armed conflict
since 27 Sep 2018 - 🇲🇲Myanmar (Burma)
Major armed conflict
since 26 Jul 2021 - 🇳🇪Niger
Major armed conflict
since 1 May 2025 - 🇳🇬Nigeria
Major armed conflict
since 5 Feb 2018 or earlier - 🇵🇰Pakistan
Major armed conflict
since 29 Sep 2023 - 🇸🇴Somalia
Major armed conflict
since 3 Dec 2023 - 🇸🇩Sudan
Major armed conflict
since 9 Apr 2023 - 🇺🇦Ukraine
Major armed conflict
since 24 Feb 2022 - 🇾🇪Yemen
Major armed conflict
since 23 Jul 2026 - 🇦🇫Afghanistan
Armed violence
since 14 Aug 2026 - 🇨🇲Cameroon
Armed violence
since 12 Apr 2026 - 🇭🇹Haiti
Armed violence
since 4 Jul 2026 - 🇷🇺Russia
Armed violence
since 3 Aug 2026 - 🇿🇦South Africa
Armed violence
since 7 Aug 2026 - 🇸🇸South Sudan
Armed violence
since 6 Jul 2026 - 🇸🇾Syria
Armed violence
since 13 Jul 2026
Is the world getting more unstable?
Countries at High or Very high risk, by week
+2 vs 27 Sep
Risk by region
High / Very high: 5
Ongoing events: 5
High / Very high: 10
Ongoing events: 10
High / Very high: 1
Ongoing events: 2
High / Very high: 1
Ongoing events: 3
High / Very high: 2
Ongoing events: 3
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Summary
Changes over 7 days (27 Sep–4 Oct)How War Radar works
- CollectArmed-violence events, official travel warnings, diplomatic evacuations and the news background from open public information.
- ScoreEach signal is weighted by how well it predicted crises in the past.
- CheckChecked on 2023–2026, years the formula had not seen; from launch on, every weekly estimate is checked after 90 days.
- UpdateRecalculated every day.
Questions and answers
Which countries are at war right now?
As of 2026-10-04, a major armed conflict is ongoing in 16 countries: Burkina Faso, Colombia, Congo - Kinshasa, Ethiopia, Israel, Lebanon, Mali, Mexico, Myanmar (Burma), Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, Ukraine, Yemen. A major armed conflict means at least 1,000 deaths in the past year and at least 25 in the past month; these data arrive with a delay of about two months.
Where is the risk of a new war or coup highest?
As of 2026-10-04, the risk of a new, separate crisis within 90 days is Very high in 1 countries: Ecuador. 18 more countries at High risk. Historically, about 1 in 4 weeks at Very high were followed by a new crisis within 90 days — most such weeks passed without one.
Is this a forecast of war?
This is a rough automated estimate drawn from the public information field — not a forecast and not travel advice. Always follow official guidance from your government.
How is the risk level calculated?
An automated formula combines the level and trend of armed violence, the country’s recent history, official travel warnings, reported evacuations of diplomatic staff, the tone of the news and the situation in neighbouring countries. Details and known limits are in the methodology.