🇮🇶Iraq war and conflict risk
Data as of · estimate recalculated daily · fighting data arrive with a delay of about 2 months · Region: Middle East & North Africa
Iraq, as of 2026-10-04: no major armed events recorded; the risk of a new armed crisis or coup within 90 days is elevated, higher than on 27 Sep. Main reason for the change: Level of armed violence — strengthened.
The estimate covers only armed crises and coups; terrorism, crime and weather are not included. Before travelling, check your foreign ministry’s advice.
Danger now is what is already happening. Risk is the chance of a new, separate crisis; during a war it can be low.
Iraq: risk level over time
Weekly risk level. Dots mark the start of an ongoing event.
Country summary
Danger now
No major armed events recorded
Risk of a new crisis (90 days)
Elevated
Historically, about 1 in 11 weeks at this level were followed by a new crisis within 90 days
Key drivers
- ↑Level of armed violence
- →Situation in neighbouring countries
Regional context
Map →Neighbouring countries
- 🇮🇷 IranHigh
- 🇸🇾 SyriaHigh
- 🇸🇦 Saudi ArabiaElevated
- 🇯🇴 JordanLow
- 🇰🇼 KuwaitLow
- 🇹🇷 TürkiyeLow
What drives the risk assessment for Iraq
Methodology →Signals behind the level and how they moved since 27 Sep
Events in the country, last 90 days
No events we track in the past 90 days.
Iraq: timeline of changes (past year)
- Risk levelLow → Elevated
- Risk levelElevated → Low
- Risk levelLow → Elevated
- EventEnded: Armed violence
- Risk levelElevated → Low
- Risk levelLow → Elevated
- EventStarted: Armed violence
- Risk levelElevated → Low
- Risk levelHigh → Elevated
How it compares
Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia +1
A crisis here means a new outbreak of armed violence or a coup — a threat to people’s lives or freedom.
Questions and answers
Is there a war in Iraq now?
No. As of 2026-10-04, no war, armed violence or other major event is recorded in Iraq. Armed-violence data arrive with a delay of about two months.
Could a new war or coup start in Iraq?
The automated estimate of the risk of a new, separate crisis in Iraq — an outbreak of armed violence or a coup — within 90 days is Elevated, higher than on 27 Sep. Historically, about 1 in 11 weeks at this level were followed by such a crisis. Most weeks at this level passed without a new crisis.
Is it safe to travel to Iraq?
War Radar is not travel advice. Danger now in Iraq: no major armed events recorded. Official travel warnings: no change. Always follow the official guidance of your government.