Will there be a third world war?
Nobody — including this site — can reliably predict a world war. What can be measured is where wars are going on now and where the risk of new armed crises is rising. As of 4 Oct 2026:
- major armed conflicts ongoing: 16
- countries at very high risk of a new crisis within 90 days: 1
- risk rose in 5 and eased in 2 countries since 27 Sep
Updated 4 Oct 2026. Armed-violence data arrive with a delay of about two months; the risk estimate is recalculated daily.
Very high risk now (1)
- Ecuador · Americas
Where is there war now → · Countries at risk of a new war or coup →
See also: world conflict map · all countries · checking the estimates.
Questions and answers
Will there be World War 3?
There is no reliable way to forecast a world war. As of 4 Oct 2026, the data show 16 major armed conflicts and 1 countries at very high risk of a new crisis; the overall picture is updated daily on the world map.
Where is the risk rising now?
Since 27 Sep, the risk level rose in 5 countries and eased in 2. The full list of changes is on the world map.