Countries at risk of a new war or coup
As of 4 Oct 2026, 1 country are at very high and 18 at high risk of a new, separate armed crisis or coup within the next 90 days.
Updated 4 Oct 2026. Armed-violence data arrive with a delay of about two months; the risk estimate is recalculated daily.
Very high (1)
Historically, at the “Very high” level about 1 in 4 weeks ended in a new crisis within 90 days.
- Ecuador · Americas
High (18)
Historically, at the “High” level about 1 in 6 weeks ended in a new crisis within 90 days.
- Central African Republic · Sub-Saharan Africa
- Chad · Sub-Saharan Africa
- Ethiopia ▲ rose since 27 Sep · Sub-Saharan Africa
- Ghana · Sub-Saharan Africa
- Haiti ▲ rose since 27 Sep · Americas
- Iran ▲ rose since 27 Sep · Middle East & North Africa
- Israel · Middle East & North Africa
- Kenya · Sub-Saharan Africa
- Lebanon · Middle East & North Africa
- Mali · Sub-Saharan Africa
- Mozambique · Sub-Saharan Africa
- Niger ▼ eased since 27 Sep · Sub-Saharan Africa
- Papua New Guinea · Asia & Pacific
- Russia · Europe
- Somalia · Sub-Saharan Africa
- South Sudan · Sub-Saharan Africa
- Sudan · Middle East & North Africa
- Syria · Middle East & North Africa
See also: world conflict map · all countries · checking the estimates.
Questions and answers
Which countries are most likely to go to war next?
As of 4 Oct 2026, the estimate is very high for: Ecuador. This is a statistical estimate, not a forecast of a specific war.
How is the risk calculated?
An automated model weighs six signals — the level of armed violence, past coups, the news background, official travel warnings, embassy evacuations and the situation in neighbouring countries — against how similar situations developed in the past. Details are on the methodology page.