War Radar
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🇮🇷Iran war and conflict risk

Data as of · estimate recalculated daily · fighting data arrive with a delay of about 2 months · Region: Middle East & North Africa

Iran, as of 2026-10-04: no major armed events recorded; the risk of a new armed crisis or coup within 90 days is high, higher than on 27 Sep. Main reason for the change: Level of armed violence — strengthened.

The estimate covers only armed crises and coups; terrorism, crime and weather are not included. Before travelling, check your foreign ministry’s advice.

Danger nowNo major armed events recorded
Risk of a new crisis (90 days)High ↑ higher than on 27 Sep
Change since 27 Sep Elevated → High
At this level, historically1 in 6weeks at this level ended in a new crisis within 90 days. In 5 of 6, nothing happened. This is a frequency for the level, not a probability for this country.

Danger now is what is already happening. Risk is the chance of a new, separate crisis; during a war it can be low.

Iran: risk level over time

Weekly risk level. Dots mark the start of an ongoing event.

LowElevatedHighVery high2026-01-12: Major armed conflict2026-03-02: Major armed conflict2026-07-06: Major armed conflict2025-10-132026-04-132026-10-04

Country summary

Danger now

No major armed events recorded

Risk of a new crisis (90 days)

High

Historically, about 1 in 6 weeks at this level were followed by a new crisis within 90 days

Key drivers

  • ↑Level of armed violence
  • →Situation in neighbouring countries
Full weekly summary →

Regional context

Map →
AfghanistanIraqPakistanTürkiyeTurkmenistanIran
Very highHighElevatedLowNo data

Neighbouring countries

What drives the risk assessment for Iran

Methodology →

Signals behind the level and how they moved since 27 Sep

Level of armed violence
↑ rising
Situation in neighbouring countries
→ no change
Information background
→ no change
Past coups
→ no change
Official travel warnings
→ no change
Diplomatic staff evacuations
→ no change

Events in the country, last 90 days

Iran: timeline of changes (past year)

  • Risk levelElevated → High
  • EventEnded: Major armed conflict
  • Risk levelHigh → Elevated
  • EventStarted: Major armed conflict
  • Risk levelVery high → High
  • EventEnded: Major armed conflict
  • Risk levelElevated → Very high
  • Risk levelVery high → Elevated
  • EventStarted: Major armed conflict

How it compares

Middle East & North Africa: countries at this level or higher5 / 21
vs 4 weeks ago ↑ Elevated → High
vs a year ago unchangedHigh
Same level in the region

Israel, Lebanon, Sudan, Syria

A crisis here means a new outbreak of armed violence or a coup — a threat to people’s lives or freedom.

Questions and answers

Is there a war in Iran now?

No. As of 2026-10-04, no war, armed violence or other major event is recorded in Iran. Armed-violence data arrive with a delay of about two months.

Could a new war or coup start in Iran?

The automated estimate of the risk of a new, separate crisis in Iran — an outbreak of armed violence or a coup — within 90 days is High, higher than on 27 Sep. Historically, about 1 in 6 weeks at this level were followed by such a crisis. Most weeks at this level passed without a new crisis.

Is it safe to travel to Iran?

War Radar is not travel advice. Danger now in Iran: no major armed events recorded. Official travel warnings: no change. Always follow the official guidance of your government.