Checking the estimates: how often each level was followed by a crisis

Each week’s levels are recorded. After 90 days we check what actually happened.

Level	Country-weeks checked	Followed by a new crisis	Followed by nothing	Rate
Low	36747	334	36413	1 in 110
Elevated	4524	397	4127	1 in 11
High	1854	323	1531	1 in 6
Very high	1160	288	872	1 in 4

Figures from the check on 2023–2026, years the formula had not seen. The same figures are used in the map legend.

Everything below is reconstructed after the fact by the current formula, which has already seen these years, so it looks better than live results will. From launch on, every weekly estimate is recorded and checked after 90 days — misses included.

Crises that were at High or Very high beforehand (77)

Reconstructed. Most weeks at these levels were followed by nothing (see the table).

Lebanon: level “High” from 2026-03-30 or earlier — crisis began 2026-05-22
Mali: level “High” from 2026-01-26 or earlier — crisis began 2026-04-25
Kenya: level “Very high” from 2026-01-19 or earlier — crisis began 2026-04-19
Chad: level “Very high” from 2026-03-30 or earlier — crisis began 2026-04-19
Israel: level “High” from 2025-12-01 or earlier — crisis began 2026-02-28
Iran: level “Very high” from 2026-02-02 or earlier — crisis began 2026-02-28
Chad: level “Very high” from 2025-12-01 or earlier — crisis began 2026-02-25
Lebanon: level “High” from 2025-12-01 or earlier — crisis began 2026-02-23
Afghanistan: level “Very high” from 2025-12-15 — crisis began 2026-02-20
Ghana: level “High” from 2025-12-22 — crisis began 2026-01-14
Iran: level “Very high” from 2025-10-06 or earlier — crisis began 2026-01-02
Benin: level “High” from 2025-11-10 — crisis began 2025-12-07
Thailand: level “High” from 2025-11-03 — crisis began 2025-12-02
Central African Republic: level “Very high” from 2025-09-01 or earlier — crisis began 2025-11-27
Sudan: level “Very high” from 2025-07-21 or earlier — crisis began 2025-10-19
Afghanistan: level “High” from 2025-08-11 — crisis began 2025-10-05
Ethiopia: level “Very high” from 2025-06-23 or earlier — crisis began 2025-09-19
South Sudan: level “Very high” from 2025-06-16 or earlier — crisis began 2025-09-14
Ghana: level “High” from 2025-08-04 — crisis began 2025-08-19
Iran: level “Very high” from 2025-03-10 or earlier — crisis began 2025-06-07
Mali: level “High” from 2025-03-03 or earlier — crisis began 2025-05-27
Niger: level “Very high” from 2025-02-24 or earlier — crisis began 2025-05-22
Chad: level “Very high” from 2025-02-10 or earlier — crisis began 2025-05-08
Ethiopia: level “Very high” from 2025-01-13 or earlier — crisis began 2025-04-11
South Sudan: level “Very high” from 2025-03-03 or earlier — crisis began 2025-03-23
Sudan: level “Very high” from 2025-02-10 or earlier — crisis began 2025-03-18
Somalia: level “High” from 2025-03-03 or earlier — crisis began 2025-03-12
Syria: level “Very high” from 2024-12-16 or earlier — crisis began 2025-02-28
Kenya: level “Very high” from 2024-11-25 or earlier — crisis began 2025-02-22
Central African Republic: level “Very high” from 2024-11-11 or earlier — crisis began 2025-02-09
Somalia: level “High” from 2024-11-04 or earlier — crisis began 2025-01-30
South Sudan: level “Very high” from 2024-10-28 or earlier — crisis began 2025-01-25
Haiti: level “High” from 2024-12-30 or earlier — crisis began 2025-01-21
Sudan: level “Very high” from 2024-10-14 or earlier — crisis began 2025-01-06
Niger: level “Very high” from 2024-09-02 or earlier — crisis began 2024-11-29
Ecuador: level “High” from 2024-08-05 or earlier — crisis began 2024-11-02
Chad: level “Very high” from 2024-07-29 or earlier — crisis began 2024-10-21
Iran: level “Very high” from 2024-07-22 or earlier — crisis began 2024-10-20
Mozambique: level “High” from 2024-07-29 — crisis began 2024-10-18
Togo: level “High” from 2024-08-12 — crisis began 2024-09-27
Lebanon: level “Very high” from 2024-06-17 or earlier — crisis began 2024-09-11
Papua New Guinea: level “High” from 2024-08-19 — crisis began 2024-09-05
Russia: level “Very high” from 2024-05-06 or earlier — crisis began 2024-08-02
Papua New Guinea: level “High” from 2024-05-27 — crisis began 2024-07-12
Niger: level “Very high” from 2024-03-25 or earlier — crisis began 2024-06-19
South Sudan: level “Very high” from 2024-02-05 or earlier — crisis began 2024-04-20
Iran: level “Very high” from 2024-01-15 or earlier — crisis began 2024-03-29
Lebanon: level “High” only in the week the crisis began (2024-03-23)
Chad: level “Very high” from 2023-12-18 or earlier — crisis began 2024-03-11
Russia: level “High” from 2024-01-29 or earlier — crisis began 2024-02-17
Central African Republic: level “Very high” from 2023-11-20 or earlier — crisis began 2024-02-16
Lebanon: level “High” from 2024-01-29 or earlier — crisis began 2024-02-09
Haiti: level “High” from 2023-10-23 or earlier — crisis began 2024-01-21
South Sudan: level “Very high” from 2023-10-09 or earlier — crisis began 2024-01-02
Niger: level “Very high” from 2023-10-23 or earlier — crisis began 2023-12-30
Burundi: level “High” only in the week the crisis began (2023-12-16)
Iran: level “High” from 2023-09-11 or earlier — crisis began 2023-12-09
Sudan: level “Very high” from 2023-07-31 or earlier — crisis began 2023-10-29
Israel: level “High” from 2023-07-03 or earlier — crisis began 2023-10-01
Niger: level “Very high” from 2023-09-11 or earlier — crisis began 2023-09-22
Azerbaijan: level “High” from 2023-08-07 — crisis began 2023-09-13
Chad: level “Very high” from 2023-06-05 or earlier — crisis began 2023-09-03
Niger: level “Very high” from 2023-05-01 or earlier — crisis began 2023-07-26
Ecuador: level “High” only in the week the crisis began (2023-06-27)
Sudan: level “Very high” from 2023-05-22 or earlier — crisis began 2023-06-12
Kenya: level “High” from 2023-03-20 — crisis began 2023-06-01
Ecuador: level “High” from 2023-03-06 — crisis began 2023-05-25
Israel: level “High” from 2023-02-27 or earlier — crisis began 2023-05-03
Chad: level “Very high” from 2023-02-06 or earlier — crisis began 2023-05-02
Burkina Faso: level “Very high” from 2023-03-20 or earlier — crisis began 2023-04-12
Sudan: level “Very high” from 2023-01-09 or earlier — crisis began 2023-04-09
Haiti: level “High” only in the week the crisis began (2023-04-02)
Haiti: level “High” from 2023-01-30 — crisis began 2023-02-22
Burkina Faso: level “Very high” from 2023-01-02 or earlier — crisis began 2023-02-11
Israel: level “High” from 2023-01-09 — crisis began 2023-01-24
Somalia: level “High” from 2023-01-02 or earlier — crisis began 2023-01-14
Kenya: level “High” from 2023-01-02 or earlier — crisis began 2023-01-11

Crises that were at a lower level beforehand (46)

Yemen: crisis began 2026-07-03
Sri Lanka: crisis began 2026-06-29
South Africa: crisis began 2026-06-14
Colombia: crisis began 2026-05-19
Indonesia: crisis began 2026-05-09
Philippines: crisis began 2026-03-22
Iraq: crisis began 2026-02-26
Sri Lanka: crisis began 2026-02-26
South Africa: crisis began 2026-02-17
Venezuela: crisis began 2025-12-30
Guinea-Bissau: crisis began 2025-11-26
Tanzania: crisis began 2025-10-23
Madagascar: crisis began 2025-10-12
Indonesia: crisis began 2025-09-16
Cambodia: crisis began 2025-07-18
Thailand: crisis began 2025-07-18
Nigeria: crisis began 2025-05-21
Benin: crisis began 2025-04-11
Indonesia: crisis began 2025-04-01
Yemen: crisis began 2025-03-05
Ghana: crisis began 2025-02-05
Congo - Kinshasa: crisis began 2025-01-17
Afghanistan: crisis began 2024-12-18
Mozambique: crisis began 2024-12-17
Benin: crisis began 2024-12-10
Haiti: crisis began 2024-11-23
Syria: crisis began 2024-11-14
Haiti: crisis began 2024-09-26
Bangladesh: crisis began 2024-07-12
Bolivia: crisis began 2024-06-26
Papua New Guinea: crisis began 2024-02-12
Mozambique: crisis began 2024-01-22
Lebanon: crisis began 2023-12-26
Russia: crisis began 2023-12-24
Philippines: crisis began 2023-11-27
Lebanon: crisis began 2023-10-08
Syria: crisis began 2023-09-29
Gabon: crisis began 2023-08-30
Burundi: crisis began 2023-08-28
Papua New Guinea: crisis began 2023-07-20
Honduras: crisis began 2023-06-14
Uganda: crisis began 2023-06-10
Russia: crisis began 2023-05-07
India: crisis began 2023-04-27
Pakistan: crisis began 2023-01-28
Togo: crisis began 2023-01-27

A crisis here means a new outbreak of armed violence or a coup — a threat to people’s lives or freedom.