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🇪🇹Ethiopia war and conflict risk

Data as of · estimate recalculated daily · fighting data arrive with a delay of about 2 months · Region: Sub-Saharan Africa

Ethiopia, as of 2026-10-04: a war is ongoing (since 8 May 2023) — this is the main danger now. Risk of yet another, new crisis within 90 days: high, higher than on 27 Sep; this measure is separate and does not reflect the war. Main reason for the change: Level of armed violence — strengthened.

The estimate covers only armed crises and coups; terrorism, crime and weather are not included. Before travelling, check your foreign ministry’s advice.

Danger nowWarsince 8 May 2023
Risk of a new crisis (90 days)High ↑ higher than on 27 Sep
Change since 27 Sep Elevated → High
At this level, historically1 in 6weeks at this level ended in a new crisis within 90 days. In 5 of 6, nothing happened. This is a frequency for the level, not a probability for this country.

Danger now is what is already happening. Risk is the chance of a new, separate crisis; during a war it can be low.

Ethiopia: risk level over time

Weekly risk level. Dots mark the start of an ongoing event.

LowElevatedHighVery high2025-10-13: Major armed conflict2025-10-132026-04-132026-10-04

Country summary

Danger now

War

Risk of a new crisis (90 days)

High

Historically, about 1 in 6 weeks at this level were followed by a new crisis within 90 days

Key drivers

  • ↑Level of armed violence
  • →Situation in neighbouring countries
  • →Information background
Full weekly summary →

Regional context

Map →
EritreaKenyaSomaliaSouth SudanSudanEthiopia
Very highHighElevatedLowNo data

Neighbouring countries

What drives the risk assessment for Ethiopia

Methodology →

Signals behind the level and how they moved since 27 Sep

Level of armed violence
↑ rising
Situation in neighbouring countries
→ no change
Information background
→ no change
Past coups
→ no change
Official travel warnings
→ no change
Diplomatic staff evacuations
→ no change

Events in the country, last 90 days

Ethiopia: timeline of changes (past year)

  • Risk levelElevated → High
  • Risk levelHigh → Elevated
  • Risk levelElevated → High
  • Risk levelHigh → Elevated
  • Risk levelVery high → High
  • Risk levelHigh → Very high
  • Risk levelVery high → High
  • Risk levelHigh → Very high
  • Risk levelVery high → High

How it compares

Sub-Saharan Africa: countries at this level or higher10 / 52
vs 4 weeks ago unchangedHigh
vs a year ago ↓ Very high → High
Same level in the region

Central African Republic, Chad, Ghana, Kenya +5

A crisis here means a new outbreak of armed violence or a coup — a threat to people’s lives or freedom.

Questions and answers

Is there a war in Ethiopia now?

Yes. As of 2026-10-04, a major armed conflict is ongoing in Ethiopia (since 8 May 2023): at least 1,000 deaths in the past year and at least 25 in the past month. These data arrive with a delay of about two months.

Could a new war or coup start in Ethiopia?

The automated estimate of the risk of a new, separate crisis in Ethiopia — an outbreak of armed violence or a coup — within 90 days is High, higher than on 27 Sep. Historically, about 1 in 6 weeks at this level were followed by such a crisis. Most weeks at this level passed without a new crisis.

Is it safe to travel to Ethiopia?

War Radar is not travel advice. Danger now in Ethiopia: war. Official travel warnings: no change. Always follow the official guidance of your government.