War Radar
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🇺🇦Ukraine war and conflict risk

Data as of · estimate recalculated daily · fighting data arrive with a delay of about 2 months · Region: Europe

Ukraine, as of 2026-10-04: a war is ongoing (since 24 Feb 2022) — this is the main danger now. Risk of yet another, new crisis within 90 days: elevated, unchanged since 27 Sep; this measure is separate and does not reflect the war. Main signal: Level of armed violence.

The estimate covers only armed crises and coups; terrorism, crime and weather are not included. Before travelling, check your foreign ministry’s advice.

Danger nowWarsince 24 Feb 2022
Risk of a new crisis (90 days)Elevated unchanged since 27 Sep
Change since 27 Sep unchangedNo change since 27 Sep
At this level, historically1 in 11weeks at this level ended in a new crisis within 90 days. In 10 of 11, nothing happened. This is a frequency for the level, not a probability for this country.

Danger now is what is already happening. Risk is the chance of a new, separate crisis; during a war it can be low.

Ukraine: risk level over time

Weekly risk level. Dots mark the start of an ongoing event.

LowElevatedHighVery high2025-10-13: Major armed conflict2025-10-132026-04-132026-10-04

Country summary

Danger now

War

Risk of a new crisis (90 days)

Elevated

Historically, about 1 in 11 weeks at this level were followed by a new crisis within 90 days

Key drivers

  • →Level of armed violence
  • →Situation in neighbouring countries
Full weekly summary →

Regional context

Map →
BelarusHungaryPolandRomaniaUkraine
Very highHighElevatedLowNo data

Neighbouring countries

What drives the risk assessment for Ukraine

Methodology →

Signals behind the level and how they moved since 27 Sep

Level of armed violence
→ no change
Situation in neighbouring countries
→ no change
Past coups
→ no change
Official travel warnings
→ no change
Diplomatic staff evacuations
→ no change
Information background
→ no change

Events in the country, last 90 days

No events we track in the past 90 days.

Ukraine: timeline of changes (past year)

  • Risk levelLow → Elevated
  • Risk levelElevated → Low

How it compares

Europe: countries at this level or higher3 / 54
vs 4 weeks ago unchangedElevated
vs a year ago unchangedElevated
Same level in the region

Azerbaijan

A crisis here means a new outbreak of armed violence or a coup — a threat to people’s lives or freedom.

Questions and answers

Is there a war in Ukraine now?

Yes. As of 2026-10-04, a major armed conflict is ongoing in Ukraine (since 24 Feb 2022): at least 1,000 deaths in the past year and at least 25 in the past month. These data arrive with a delay of about two months.

Could a new war or coup start in Ukraine?

The automated estimate of the risk of a new, separate crisis in Ukraine — an outbreak of armed violence or a coup — within 90 days is Elevated, unchanged since 27 Sep. Historically, about 1 in 11 weeks at this level were followed by such a crisis. Most weeks at this level passed without a new crisis.

Is it safe to travel to Ukraine?

War Radar is not travel advice. Danger now in Ukraine: war. Official travel warnings: no change. Always follow the official guidance of your government.